betting id cricketFantasy basketball tips and NBA betting picks for Monday
ESPN’s fantasy basketball and basketball betting tips cheat sheet is your pregame destination for basketball betting predictions and our best intel and data to help you make smart fantasy and wagering decisions. NBA game odds for December 12th are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is based on ESPN 10-team leagues.
???Different ‘Dogs: Tonight’s slate is littered with some interesting spreads, namely home teams getting at least three points and road teams getting at least seven. In theory, these two situations are similar after you adjust for homecourt, but that hasn’t been the case. Home teams catching at least three points have covered 59.1% of the time while those road teams are at 50% on the nose. So, if you’re in an underdog state of mind, try to work around the home teams.
Which Trend to Buy: The Mavericks have been among the worst ATS teams in the league this year, boasting a brutal 8-16-2 ATS record (33.3% cover rate). That rate dips further (31.6%) when favored. They face a Thunder team with polar opposite trends: 15-11 ATS this season with a 15-7 ATS mark when catching points. Smash the Thunder, right? Not wrong, but be careful … it’s only been seven games, but the Mavs are 5-2 when favored in a game with a projected total of at least 220 points (1-11-1 otherwise). Strong trends pulling in opposite directions: which number do you put more faith into?
Getting Goodwin: There is a second-year undrafted talent likely to start tonight who has compiled 11 steals and nine dimes while averaging 18 points over his past two games. Washington’s Jordan Goodwin has thrived while starting in place of Bradley Beal. With the Wizards ruling Beal out ahead of tonight’s matchup with the Nets, Goodwin, who is a free agent in 96% of ESPN leagues, is due for another rewarding workload.
Bogdan Balling: The Atlanta Hawks won’t have Dejounte Murray in the lineup against the Grizzlies in Memphis this evening. While there is no singular replacement for Dejounte Murray’s elite two-way skill set, it helps that Bogdan Bogdanovic has averaged 29.5 points over his last two games. With Atlanta needing Bogdanovic’s creation, he’s in a good spot at just $4,800 on DraftKings while being a free agent in roughly 60% of ESPN leagues.
– Jim McCormick and Kyle Soppe
Atlanta Hawks at Memphis Grizzlies
8 p.m. ET, FedExForum, Memphis, Tennessee
Line: Grizzlies (-8)
Money line: Grizzlies (-345), Hawks (+270)
Total: 227.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 235.9 points
BPI Win%: Grizzlies (72.6%)
Questionable: Dejounte Murray, Ja Morant, Steven Adams
Ruled Out: John Collins
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Miami Heat at Indiana Pacers
7 p.m. ET, Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, Indiana
Line: Heat (-3)
Money line: Heat (-155), Pacers (+130)
Total: 228 points
BPI Projected Total: 228.5 points
BPI Win%: Pacers (57.7%)
Probable: Duncan Robinson, Tyler Herro, Jimmy Butler, Max Strus
Questionable: Dewayne Dedmon
Ruled Out: Gabe Vincent
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Best bet: Tyrese Haliburton over 29.5 total points + assists. Haliburton has been particularly aggressive since his return from injury last week, averaging 28.0 PPG and 11.7 APG in his last three outings. Even his season averages of 20.2 PPG and 11.0 APG would put him over the 29.5 line, but he’s been producing well above average of late. — Andre Snellings
Best bet: Tyrese Haliburton over 2.5 3-pointers. Haliburton has averaged 20.2 points per game this season, shot 7.1 3-pointers per game. In fact, over the past seven games, Haliburton has made nearly 50% of his 51 3-point attempts. — Eric Moody
Best bet: Tyler Herro over 20.5 points. The Pacers have allowed the third-most points per game to shooting guards this season. Meanwhile Herro has scored 20 or more points in four of his past five games. — Moody
Fantasy streamer: Victor Oladipo (rostered in 9.0% of ESPN leagues) is on the streaming radar with Gabe Vincent ruled out. Oladipo finished with 20 fantasy points in 23 minutes against the Spurs on Saturday. — Moody
Brooklyn Nets at Washington Wizards
7 p.m. ET, Capital One Arena, Washington, Washington D.C.
Line: Nets (-6)
Money line: Nets (-225), Wizards (+185)
Total: 226 points
BPI Projected Total: 234.8 points
BPI Win%: Nets (53.6%)
Questionable: Nic Claxton, Monte Morris
Ruled Out: Royce O’Neale, Rui Hachimura, Bradley Beal
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Best bet: Kevin Durant over 39.5 points + assists + rebounds. While Durant sat out Saturday night against the Pacers, he’s surpassed 39.5 PAR in his past three games played. — Moody
Best bet: Kristaps Porzingis over 34.5 points + rebounds. Porzingis has surpassed 34.5 points and rebounds in four straight games. — Moody
Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks
8:30 p.m. ET, American Airlines Center, Dallas, Texas
Line: Mavericks (-7.5)
Money line: Mavericks (-345), Thunder (+270)
Total: 228.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 224.7 points
BPI Win%: Mavericks (77.9%)
Probable: Luka Doncic
Questionable: Maxi Kleber
Ruled Out: Josh Green, Kenrich Williams
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Cleveland Cavaliers at San Antonio Spurs
8:30 p.m. ET, AT&T Center, San Antonio, Texas
Line: Cavaliers (-6.5)
Money line: Cavaliers (-278), Spurs (+222)
Total: 218.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 230.4 points
BPI Win%: Cavaliers (74.8%)
Questionable: Kevin Love, Donovan Mitchell
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Fantasy streamer: Zach Collins (available in 98.0% of leagues) has started five straight games in place of Jakob Poeltl and seems to have started getting into the groove in his last couple outings. In those two games, he has averaged a respectable 13.0 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 2.5 APG, 1.0 BPG, 0.5 3PG and 0.5 SPG in 28.5 MPG. — Snellings
Best bet: Cavaliers -5.5. The Spurs have won their last two games, but they’d lost 11 straight and 16 out of 17 overall before those games. Of those 16 losses, 14 of them were by more than 5.5 points. The Cavaliers, on the other hand, have won nine of their last 14 games, with all nine victories by more than 5.5 points. — Snellings
Best bet: Evan Mobley over 24.5 points + rebounds. Mobley has averaged 15.0 PPG and 9.3 RPG this season and draws a favorable matchup against a Spurs team that has struggled against power forwards all season. San Antonio ranks 30th in points allowed per 100 possessions. — Moody
Minnesota Timberwolves at Portland Trail Blazers
10 p.m. ET, Moda Center, Portland, Oregon
Line: Blazers (-4)
Money line: Blazers (-170), Timberwolves (+143)
Total: 230 points
BPI Projected Total: 237.9 points
BPI Win%: Blazers (60.7%)
Questionable: Jordan McLaughlin
Ruled Out: Taurean Prince, Karl-Anthony Towns
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Fantasy streamer: Kyle Anderson (available in 91.7% of leagues) and Naz Reid (available in 98.8% of leagues) have become two of my favorite streamers in Karl-Anthony Towns’ absence. Both are glue guys, hustle guys that produce when given minutes and have somewhat explosive upside. In his last two games, Anderson has flirted with triple-doubles with averages of 14.5 PPG, 9.0 APG, 7.0 RPG, 1.5 SPG and 0.5 BPG in 37.0 MPG. Reid, even playing behind Rudy Gobert, has averaged 13.5 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 1.5 BPG and 1.5 3PG in only 15.5 MPG in his last two. — Snellings
Best bet: Damian Lillard over 27.5 points, over 35.5 total points + assists. Lillard has returned wielding a flame thrower. After his latest injury absence, Lillard took a game to warm up and then scored 76 points with 20 assists in his next two games. One of those games was against Monday’s opponent, the Timberwolves, and he just dropped 36 and 8 on them on Saturday night. — Snellings
Boston Celtics at LA Clippers
10:30 p.m. ET, Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, California
Line: Celtics (-3.5)
Money line: Celtics (-165), Clippers (+140)
Total: 223.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 228.2 points
BPI Win%: Celtics (62.5%)
Ruled Out: Al Horford, Norman Powell
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
1. Memphis Grizzlies (121.3 points)
2. Portland Trail Blazers (120.5 points)
3. Cleveland Cavaliers (118.9 points)
1. Oklahoma City Thunder (108.3 points)
2. San Antonio Spurs (112.4 points)
3. LA Clippers (112.4 points)
1. Dallas Mavericks (77.9%)
2. Cleveland Cavaliers (74.8%)
3. Memphis Grizzlies (72.6%)
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betting id cricketHistoric comebacks, bad beats and bowl games highlight weekend in betting
The World Cup! Bowl season! The NBA! NFL action on Saturday! What could possibly go wrong for bettors everywhere? Glad you asked. Buckets of tears are back and ready to be filled.
Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings came into the game with a chance to clinch their division and the Colts had nothing to play for. Add to that an injury to star running back Jonathan Taylor as the game got started and there was no way Vikings bettors would be getting lumps of coal in their stockings, right? Welllllllll…
It looked like Santa came early this year, and he was a Colts fan — or at least he wanted to make sure Colts bettors had their best Christmas in years with this play.
The Colts went into the half with a 33-point lead and fantasy football teams in their first-round playoff matchups hit the eggnog early and often in this one. I mean, there’s nothing better than no Jonathan Taylor and a useless touchdown by K.J. Osborn instead of Justin Jefferson, right?
Four buckets of joyful big money win tears for Colts bettors and fantasy seasons crumbling.
As a Raiders fan, I should know better than to write anything until the clock hits 0:00. Remember when I joked about useless touchdowns? Well… Jefferson still had plenty of useful work to do in this — but fantasy owners were still livid even as a 33-0 game suddenly came down to 36-28 late in the fourth quarter.
This thing went from wild to unreal, though, when a clear fumble recovery by the Vikings was nullified by the official’s ruling that the runner was down. The Vikings still got the ball back after review, but because of the ruling on the field the touchdown was wiped out. How?! Look, technology exists for a reason and I can’t for the life of me understand why it isn’t used to the fullest extent. I understand the rule, but it stinks. Even worse? An unsportsmanlike penalty called on the Vikings clearly pushed them out of field goal range. Why did they commit the penalty? They were mad at the bad officiating. At least give them a “my bad,” refs.
But we all know you can’t stop midday Kirk. Kirk Cousins captained the biggest comeback in NFL history, culminating with this big win for somebody, right?
It took overtime, a stupid delay of game penalty by the Colts and all but three seconds of overtime, but the Vikings made history. Now, for the rest of time, when your favorite team is down by 30 at the half you can say, “No biggie. I’ve seen this comeback before.”
Five buckets of deleted tweets and “never doubted it” tears.
New England Patriots at Las Vegas Raiders
Look, the Raiders are obviously trying to kill me (and all bettors) this season. And after last week’s collapse against the Rams I thought I had seen it all. Then, this happened:
That’s right, if you had the ‘pick six lateral for a touchdown by a former Patriot against the Patriots in a tie game with no time left on the clock for the win’ on your Wild Raiders Endings Bingo Card for 2022, congrats on getting to yell BINGO! for the world to hear.
On a day that saw the Jags stun the Cowboys and Tom Brady blow a huge lead, NOTHING was more stunning than this. Also, I think I owe my neighbor a plate of Christmas Cookies after the naughty list language I was using at full volume while this happened. Side note: there’s still no thing as a tuck rule.
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